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Trend e trendline

trendIl concetto di trend, in analisi tecnica, è stato sviscerato in diversi modi nel corso degli anni. Lo stesso Charles Dow, uno sei padri dell’analisi tecnica se non il vero fondatore della materia, ha definito il trend al rialzo come quella fase in cui ogni movimento rialzista porta a nuovi massimi e ogni correzione finisce su un minimo superiore a quello precedente. In altri termini l’uptrend si sviluppa secondo una formazione a massimi e minimi crescenti.

Viceversa il trend al ribasso, o downtrend, è caratterizzato da una fase in cui massimi e minimi sono decrescenti. A questi due trend va aggiunto il trend laterale, caratterizzato da massimi e minimi orizzontali.
La definizione di trend è una delle pietre miliari della materia e ne ha condizionato le regole. Una di quelle fondamentali, in analisi tecnica, indica che un trend è da considerarsi in atto finchè non esiste un segnale definitivo di inversione di tendenza.
Charles Dow individuava tre tipologie di trend. Il trend primario, il trend secondario e il trend minore. Il primario è quello di più lungo termine, che può durare anche diversi anni. Il secondario rappresenta una correzione del trend primario e può durare fino a qualche mese. Queste correzioni possono arrivare a quote comprese tra il 33% e il 66% dell’ampiezza totale del movimento precedente, con un ritracciamento che spesso arriva al 50%. L’ultimo trend, quello minore, dura al massimo qualche settimana e rappresenta il movimento più breve di un trend intermedio.
Va a Charles Dow anche un’altra definizione, quella delle fasi di un trend. Lo studioso ha individuato, in un trend primario al rialzo, la fase di accumulazione, quella di partecipazione pubblica e quella di distribuzione.
La prima, quella di accumulazione, prende il via in scia agli acquisti degli investitori più avveduti, che ritengono che siano finite le notizie negative riguardo a un titolo. La seconda fase, quella di distribuzione, si verifica quando inizia a crescere il flusso delle notizie positive sul titolo e su quest’ultimo entrano in posizione i trend follower, gli investitori che seguono i trend. La terza, quella di distribuzione, vede l’uscita dalla posizione dei primi investitori (che distribuiscono i loro titoli) e l’avvio di una fase di grande speculazione.

Le trendline
Le trendline sono linee di tendenza tracciate sui grafici. La loro importanza deriva dal fatto che il loro impiego è previsto nella costruzione di quasi tutti i pattern di prezzo dell’analisi grafica. Quindi si tratta di elementi di riconoscimento fondamentali.

uptrend

Un esempio di trend rialzista

Le trendline si costruiscono congiungendo almeno due massimi o due minimi. Visto che si tratta di una rappresentazione grafica del trend sottostante non sono trendline quelle che toccano solo un massimo o un minimo. Le trendline rialziste si costruiscono congiungendo almeno due minimi con il secondo minimo maggiore del primo, mentre le ribassiste si costruiscono congiungendo due massimi con il secondo massimo minore del primo.

downtrend

Un esempio di trend ribassista

Nell’analisi dei pattern di prezzo dell’analisi grafica la violazione di una trendline rialzista o ribassista segnala solitamente un cambiamento della tendenza in atto.


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